FIFA have released updated world rankings today and the same will be considered for seeding in the 2014 World Cup. Next update would be in November, but FIFA decided to ignore those as the 8 UEFA teams which are currently waiting for play offs to determine 4 eventual entrants will gain a massive advantage over teams which have already qualified. This is because FIFA gives more weightage to World Cup qualification (coeff: 2.5) matches compared to friendly (coeff: 1) games. This should also explain the steady fall of Brazil's world ranking since the end of Copa America 2011 as hosts are exempted from playing qualification matches for the World Cup and Brazil could not gain too many points from playing friendlies.
How does FIFA calculate ranking points?
FIFA considers the performance of a national team in the preceding four years to evaluate the ranking points and eventually the rank. Quite logically, more importance is given to recent results compared to the results from matches played 4 years ago.
Current calculation method = P * MC * S * OCC
P = Points.
A win gives 3 points, a draw gives 1 and a loss would mean 0.
MC = Match Coefficient.
Friendly games have coefficient of 1
World Cup qualifying matches have coefficient of 2.5
Continental Cup (Copa America, Euro, AFCON, etc) qualifiers have coefficient of 2.5
Continental Cup and Confederations Cup matches have coefficient of 3
FIFA World Cup matches have coefficient of 4
S = Strength of opposition
It is usually calculated as 200 - Rank of opposition team.
There are two exceptions to this calculation:
1. Strength of top ranked team is considered as 200
2. Minimum value of S is 50. So all nations ranked 150 or below (or above, whichever way you look at it) have S as 50.
For example, if the opposition team is Spain (currently: 1st), the S = 200. If the opposition is Japan (currently: 44th), the S = 200 - 44 = 156. If the opposition is India (currently: 154th), the S = 50.
OCC = Opposition Confederation Coefficient
Along with the consideration of opposition's strength, there is also another factor called strength of the confederation to which opposition belongs. Currently, the coefficient values of different confederations are as follows:
UEFA = 1.0
CONMEBOL (South America) = 1.0
CONCACAF (North America) = 0.88
AFC (Asia) = 0.86
CAF (Africa) = 0.86
OFC (Oceania) = 0.85
The weightage given to performances of past 4 yrs is as follows
Last 12 months = 100%
Preceding 12 months = 50%
12 months prior to above = 30%
12 months prior to above = 20%
Ranking points from each match are calculated using above formula.
Let's say Netherlands beat Japan 2-1 in a friendly match.
Ranking points obtained by Netherlands for that particular game would be
3 * 1 * 156 * 0.86 = 402.48
Average ranking points in a twelve month period is got by simply dividing total ranking points obtained in that time period by number of matches played. Weightage rules are applied and final ranking points are calculated.
For example, Japan's ranking points are as follows:
Year Average Weight Avg Weight
2010 398.52 20% 79.7
2011 539.52 30% 161.86
2012 344.44 50% 172.22
2013 220.65 100% 220.65
Total = 634.
Top 14 countries (Spain to Portugal) all have 1000+ ranking points and considering the weightage of recent results, it seems like an average of 550 points in 2013 seems a good score.
How Switzerland made a massive jump:
Switzerland provide a curious scenario. They didn't even manage to qualify for Euro last year but their qualification campaign for World Cup has been brilliant. They were ranked 30th last year and got paired in a group containing Norway (12), Slovenia (22), Albania (59), Cyprus (80) and Iceland (121). Considering that they were 3rd best in the group before the qualification started, they were expected to provide a fight for the qualification. They were the only side to beat Spain in 2010 World Cup, after all.
Nb: Brackets denote ranking just before WC qualification started.
Switzerland have put the Euro 2012 behind and made a steady start to the WC qualifying campaign. Their results for past 12 months are
Nb: Brackets denote ranking at the time of playing Switzerland
Friendly - 2-1 vs Tunisia (46) = 3 * 1 * 154 * 0.86 = 397.32 pts
Friendly - 0-0 vs Greece (11) = 1 * 1 * 189 * 1 = 189 pts
WCQ - 0-0 vs Cyprus (133) = 1 * 2.5 * 67 * 1 = 167.5 pts
WCQ - 1-0 vs Cyprus (122) = 3 * 2.5 * 78 * 1 = 585 pts
Friendly - 1-0 vs Brazil (9) = 3 * 1 * 191 * 1 = 573 pts
[this is the importance of WC Qualifiers. Beating a low ranked Cyprus in WC qualification still gives almost same points as beating 9th ranked Brazil in a friendly!]
WCQ - 4-4 vs Iceland (70) = 1 * 2.5 * 130 * 1 = 325 pts
WCQ - 2-0 vs Norway (25) = 3 * 2.5 * 175 * 1 = 1312.5 pts
WCQ - 2-1 vs Albania (45) = 3 * 2.5 * 155 * 1 = 1162.5 pts
WCQ - 1-0 vs Slovenia (29) = 3 * 2.5 * 171 * 1 = 1282.5 pts
In addition to remaining unbeaten throughout the WC qualification campaign (7W, 3D), Switzerland beat three top 50 nations in their last 3 matches making their ranking points jump from 788 pts (rank 27) in August to 1138 pts (rank 7) by October. Switzerland average 670 pts for every match in last 12 months and those points contributed massively for their upswing. Switzerland only needed a point from final 2 qualification matches to nearly confirm their participation in the WC. Ottmar Hitzfeld's side went out and won both games considerably improving their rankings. The wins brought additional rewards in the form of getting seeded to World Cup group draws.
Friendlies ruin Oranje
If Switzerland were disappointed with Euro 2012 for not qualifying, then Netherlands had bigger nightmares after losing all 3 of their group games (Denmark, Germany, Portugal) for the first time in their history. Coach Bert van Marwijk moved aside and Louis van Gaal took over the national team for the second time. Van Gaal was determined to make amends for the failed 2002 WC qualification when Portugal and Ireland qualified eliminating Netherlands.
The qualification campaign started with a 2-0 win over Turkey at home and 4-1 win away in Hungary. Rest of it was a breeze with Netherlands winning 9 games and drawing 2-2 vs Estonia. Netherlands scored 34 goals, next only to Germany's 36 in UEFA confederation. But what hurt them?
Friendly - 0-0 vs Germany (2) = 1 * 1* 198 * 1 = 198 pts
Friendly - 1-1 vs Italy (4) = 1 * 1 * 196 * 1 = 196 pts
WCQ - 3-0 vs Estonia (89) = 3 * 2.5 * 111 * 1 = 832.5 pts
WCQ - 4-0 vs Romania (31) = 3 * 2.5 * 169 * 1 = 1267.5 pts
Friendly - 3-0 vs Indonesia (170) = 3 * 1 * 50 * 0.86 = 129 pts
Friendly - 2-0 vs China (95) = 3 * 1 * 105 * 0.86 = 270.9 pts
Friendly - 1-1 vs Portugal (7) = 1 * 2.5 * 193 * 1 = 482.5 pts
WCQ - 2-2 vs Estonia (85) = 1 * 2.5 * 115 * 1 = 287.5 pts
WCQ - 2-0 vs Andorra (205) = 3 * 2.5 * 50 * 1 = 375 pts
WCQ - 8-1 vs Hungary (30) = 3 * 2.5 * 170 * 1 = 1275 pts
WCQ - 2-0 vs Turkey (49) = 3 * 2.5 * 151 * 1 = 1132.5 pts
Though Netherlands have an average of 1010 pts over 4 yrs ago, only 20% of those points are considered for ranking calculation. The much recent 12 month period sees Oranje have an avg of 562 pts. Though it's a good average, one can't help but think of those friendly matches which produced low points.
A 0-0 against arch rivals Germany is not worrisome but Netherlands threw away important leads in Portugal and Italy games. In both the games Netherlands led 1-0 only to concede 88th min and 90th min goals (Ronaldo for Portugal and Verratti for Italy) and settle for two 1-1 draws. Ranking points from those two games would have been tripled had Netherlands won instead. Or even the case of Indonesia and China. The two countries are ranked so far below in the table that even beating them 10-0 would have provided barely any points for Holland. These four games have considerably reduced the average ranking points in last 12 month period. Switzerland have 1138 pts and are seeded for the WC. Netherlands have 1136 pts and are unseeded (expecting Uruguay to comfortably beat Jordan in play-offs and clinch the seeding). When the difference is only 2 pts, those friendly results seem to hurt now.
Will be posting about Italy, Belgium, Colombia and Uruguay tomorrow.
EDIT: Not posting about above nations as hardly got any views for this post.
How does FIFA calculate ranking points?
FIFA considers the performance of a national team in the preceding four years to evaluate the ranking points and eventually the rank. Quite logically, more importance is given to recent results compared to the results from matches played 4 years ago.
Current calculation method = P * MC * S * OCC
P = Points.
A win gives 3 points, a draw gives 1 and a loss would mean 0.
MC = Match Coefficient.
Friendly games have coefficient of 1
World Cup qualifying matches have coefficient of 2.5
Continental Cup (Copa America, Euro, AFCON, etc) qualifiers have coefficient of 2.5
Continental Cup and Confederations Cup matches have coefficient of 3
FIFA World Cup matches have coefficient of 4
S = Strength of opposition
It is usually calculated as 200 - Rank of opposition team.
There are two exceptions to this calculation:
1. Strength of top ranked team is considered as 200
2. Minimum value of S is 50. So all nations ranked 150 or below (or above, whichever way you look at it) have S as 50.
For example, if the opposition team is Spain (currently: 1st), the S = 200. If the opposition is Japan (currently: 44th), the S = 200 - 44 = 156. If the opposition is India (currently: 154th), the S = 50.
OCC = Opposition Confederation Coefficient
Along with the consideration of opposition's strength, there is also another factor called strength of the confederation to which opposition belongs. Currently, the coefficient values of different confederations are as follows:
UEFA = 1.0
CONMEBOL (South America) = 1.0
CONCACAF (North America) = 0.88
AFC (Asia) = 0.86
CAF (Africa) = 0.86
OFC (Oceania) = 0.85
The weightage given to performances of past 4 yrs is as follows
Last 12 months = 100%
Preceding 12 months = 50%
12 months prior to above = 30%
12 months prior to above = 20%
Ranking points from each match are calculated using above formula.
Let's say Netherlands beat Japan 2-1 in a friendly match.
Ranking points obtained by Netherlands for that particular game would be
3 * 1 * 156 * 0.86 = 402.48
Average ranking points in a twelve month period is got by simply dividing total ranking points obtained in that time period by number of matches played. Weightage rules are applied and final ranking points are calculated.
For example, Japan's ranking points are as follows:
Year Average Weight Avg Weight
2010 398.52 20% 79.7
2011 539.52 30% 161.86
2012 344.44 50% 172.22
2013 220.65 100% 220.65
Total = 634.
Top 14 countries (Spain to Portugal) all have 1000+ ranking points and considering the weightage of recent results, it seems like an average of 550 points in 2013 seems a good score.
How Switzerland made a massive jump:
Switzerland provide a curious scenario. They didn't even manage to qualify for Euro last year but their qualification campaign for World Cup has been brilliant. They were ranked 30th last year and got paired in a group containing Norway (12), Slovenia (22), Albania (59), Cyprus (80) and Iceland (121). Considering that they were 3rd best in the group before the qualification started, they were expected to provide a fight for the qualification. They were the only side to beat Spain in 2010 World Cup, after all.
Nb: Brackets denote ranking just before WC qualification started.
Switzerland have put the Euro 2012 behind and made a steady start to the WC qualifying campaign. Their results for past 12 months are
Nb: Brackets denote ranking at the time of playing Switzerland
Friendly - 2-1 vs Tunisia (46) = 3 * 1 * 154 * 0.86 = 397.32 pts
Friendly - 0-0 vs Greece (11) = 1 * 1 * 189 * 1 = 189 pts
WCQ - 0-0 vs Cyprus (133) = 1 * 2.5 * 67 * 1 = 167.5 pts
WCQ - 1-0 vs Cyprus (122) = 3 * 2.5 * 78 * 1 = 585 pts
Friendly - 1-0 vs Brazil (9) = 3 * 1 * 191 * 1 = 573 pts
[this is the importance of WC Qualifiers. Beating a low ranked Cyprus in WC qualification still gives almost same points as beating 9th ranked Brazil in a friendly!]
WCQ - 4-4 vs Iceland (70) = 1 * 2.5 * 130 * 1 = 325 pts
WCQ - 2-0 vs Norway (25) = 3 * 2.5 * 175 * 1 = 1312.5 pts
WCQ - 2-1 vs Albania (45) = 3 * 2.5 * 155 * 1 = 1162.5 pts
WCQ - 1-0 vs Slovenia (29) = 3 * 2.5 * 171 * 1 = 1282.5 pts
In addition to remaining unbeaten throughout the WC qualification campaign (7W, 3D), Switzerland beat three top 50 nations in their last 3 matches making their ranking points jump from 788 pts (rank 27) in August to 1138 pts (rank 7) by October. Switzerland average 670 pts for every match in last 12 months and those points contributed massively for their upswing. Switzerland only needed a point from final 2 qualification matches to nearly confirm their participation in the WC. Ottmar Hitzfeld's side went out and won both games considerably improving their rankings. The wins brought additional rewards in the form of getting seeded to World Cup group draws.
Friendlies ruin Oranje
If Switzerland were disappointed with Euro 2012 for not qualifying, then Netherlands had bigger nightmares after losing all 3 of their group games (Denmark, Germany, Portugal) for the first time in their history. Coach Bert van Marwijk moved aside and Louis van Gaal took over the national team for the second time. Van Gaal was determined to make amends for the failed 2002 WC qualification when Portugal and Ireland qualified eliminating Netherlands.
The qualification campaign started with a 2-0 win over Turkey at home and 4-1 win away in Hungary. Rest of it was a breeze with Netherlands winning 9 games and drawing 2-2 vs Estonia. Netherlands scored 34 goals, next only to Germany's 36 in UEFA confederation. But what hurt them?
Friendly - 0-0 vs Germany (2) = 1 * 1* 198 * 1 = 198 pts
Friendly - 1-1 vs Italy (4) = 1 * 1 * 196 * 1 = 196 pts
WCQ - 3-0 vs Estonia (89) = 3 * 2.5 * 111 * 1 = 832.5 pts
WCQ - 4-0 vs Romania (31) = 3 * 2.5 * 169 * 1 = 1267.5 pts
Friendly - 3-0 vs Indonesia (170) = 3 * 1 * 50 * 0.86 = 129 pts
Friendly - 2-0 vs China (95) = 3 * 1 * 105 * 0.86 = 270.9 pts
Friendly - 1-1 vs Portugal (7) = 1 * 2.5 * 193 * 1 = 482.5 pts
WCQ - 2-2 vs Estonia (85) = 1 * 2.5 * 115 * 1 = 287.5 pts
WCQ - 2-0 vs Andorra (205) = 3 * 2.5 * 50 * 1 = 375 pts
WCQ - 8-1 vs Hungary (30) = 3 * 2.5 * 170 * 1 = 1275 pts
WCQ - 2-0 vs Turkey (49) = 3 * 2.5 * 151 * 1 = 1132.5 pts
Though Netherlands have an average of 1010 pts over 4 yrs ago, only 20% of those points are considered for ranking calculation. The much recent 12 month period sees Oranje have an avg of 562 pts. Though it's a good average, one can't help but think of those friendly matches which produced low points.
A 0-0 against arch rivals Germany is not worrisome but Netherlands threw away important leads in Portugal and Italy games. In both the games Netherlands led 1-0 only to concede 88th min and 90th min goals (Ronaldo for Portugal and Verratti for Italy) and settle for two 1-1 draws. Ranking points from those two games would have been tripled had Netherlands won instead. Or even the case of Indonesia and China. The two countries are ranked so far below in the table that even beating them 10-0 would have provided barely any points for Holland. These four games have considerably reduced the average ranking points in last 12 month period. Switzerland have 1138 pts and are seeded for the WC. Netherlands have 1136 pts and are unseeded (expecting Uruguay to comfortably beat Jordan in play-offs and clinch the seeding). When the difference is only 2 pts, those friendly results seem to hurt now.
Will be posting about Italy, Belgium, Colombia and Uruguay tomorrow.
EDIT: Not posting about above nations as hardly got any views for this post.
No comments:
Post a Comment