Thursday, July 18, 2013

How important is Nani?

I have been a massive fan of Nani ever since he scored his first goal against Spurs in 2007 and celebrated by his trademark flip. I agree he infuriates many Utd fans but that is only because everyone knows his capabilities and the frustration is because he seldom seems to play to his level.

Nevertheless, I checked out the statistics of few other players to compare with Nani since he moved to Man Utd in 2007. Ribery and Robben have been top wingers playing in Bayern Munchen [as well as Real Madrid for Robben] where the tactical systems use wingers prominently instead of wide forwards. Then I've checked out Cesc Fabregas, the best central midfielder in England when he left to Barcelona. He has played as wide forward and false 9 in Barcelona since his move in 2011 but it only saw an increase in goals with his assist tally reducing a bit. Then there's David Silva and Juan Mata who I liked ever since their Valencia days [along with David Villa] playing in tactical systems which focus on chance creation through center [Silva - Man City, Mata - Chelsea].

Included Jesus Navas as he was impressive with Sevilla previously [is he the only winger available as plan B for Del Bosque?] and recently moved to Man City. Inclusion of Ozil's name has been tricky though. He was the main man for Werder Bremen and after he moved to Real Madrid, the tactical system is not completely focused on center. With Ronaldo and Di Maria, Madrid can afford to attack incessantly through wings and with the pace of their attack, they also rely on fast counter attacks occasionally instead of methodical passing in center trying to draw opposition defenders out. Ozil has also played  as the wide player in a 4-2-3-1 and despite all these factors, he has done well. Fabregas, Nani, Silva and Navas are of similar age, separated by just few months while Mata, Ozil are 2 yrs younger. Ribery and Robben are of course more experienced.

A look at their statistics* from 07-08 through 12-13.

Franck Ribery - 18370 mins - 203 goals+assists - a goal or assist every 90.5 mins
Arjen Robben - 13583 mins - 139 goals + assists - a goal or assist every 97.7 mins
Cesc Fabregas - 18830 mins - 182 goals + assists - a goal or assist every 103.4 mins
Mesut Ozil - 20391 mins - 184 goals + assists - a goal or assist every 110.8 mins
Juan Mata - 21486 mins - 184 goals + assists - a goal or assist every 116.7 mins
Luis Nani - 14891 mins - 113 goals + assists - a goal or assist every 131.7 mins
David Silva - 20075 mins - 120 goals + assists - a goal or assist every 167.3 mins
Jesus Navas - 22452 mins - 101 goals + assists - a goal or assist every 222.3 mins

Franck Ribery has been frankly scary for last 3 seasons despite Borussia Dortmund winning the league title in two of those seasons. Arjen Robben was in and out of the team with injuries and even last season he only got a look in after the impressive Toni Kroos got injured but Robben grabbed his chances and played brilliant in winning The Treble. He single handedly got Munchen on the verge of Treble in 2010 and without his goals, Munchen would have lost to either Fiorentina [Round of 16] or Man Utd [Quarterfinals] in the CL that year. Good God, just look at the figures he put up despite his injuries.

Cesc Fabregas, was the provider-in-chief at Arsenal and after he went to Barcelona, he didn't always play as a central midfielder. But statistically, he didn't suffer any dip. As the assists column saw a dip, the goals column shot up. Mesut Ozil and Juan Mata, despite being teenagers for 2 of the seasons under consideration, put up highly impressive figures. One can argue that Ozil has Ronaldo in Madrid to shoot up his assists charts [I think Ronaldo-Ozil is the most frequent combo in goal scoring for past 3 seasons cumulative] but Ozil put up brilliant performances though the team is not built around him like Mata at Chelsea.

When David Silva came to the Premier League, he didn't readily adjust like Mata did. But Silva walked away from 2011-12 season, where City won their 3rd ever league title, as the best midfielder [though that mantle is taken away by Mata now].

Then there's Nani. Joined in 2007-08 as 20 yr old Portuguese talent following the footsteps of Ronaldo but he has suffered heavily with the comparisons. I haven't come across any interview where he compares himself with Ronaldo, but that doesn't stop the detractors to mock him. When you're only the 2nd player from your country to join a club like Man Utd with the first ever player being hailed as best player in the world, I guess it's understandable to feel a bit nervous. His perceived lack of consistency is nothing more than an exaggerated myth imo. As a Utd player, the turnaround in his performances came in January 2010 after a 3-1 win over Arsenal at Emirates and he never looked back. For the next 60 or so Premier League games from 2010 January till end of 2011-12 season, he averaged a goal or assist every 80 mins. An average of a goal or assist in every Premier League game for two and a half seasons is pretty consistent imo.

There were rumours in 2012 summer that Nani might be offloaded. With Berbatov already leaving [Berbatov-Nani-Carrick are my favorite Underrated Holy Trinity], I was worried if Nani might leave. He was 25, he had brilliant two and a half seasons and just about entering his prime years. Thankfully, he wasn't sold. There were murmurs that he was stalling his contract talks and with only 2 years left on his deal [Jun, 2014], the club had to either extend his contract or risk losing him for relatively less money. Fergie was unimpressed with what I understand as strictly background information [let's agree here, no one actually knows whether Nani had created problems with respect to contract negotiations] and Nani was frozen from the team. The continuous injuries and lack of faith from the manager saw his performance levels oscillate for past season but with Fergie's unexpected retirement, Nani can pin his hopes on the new manager Moyes.

Moyes can use Nani as he used Pienaar at Everton. With Baines providing the width on the left, Pienaar was encouraged to cut in and take scoring chances. Despite all the criticism of Nani, he averages a goal or assist every 131 mins over six seasons, which is like 1.5 matches. So, if he plays 45 games in a season and performs as well as his career average at Utd, he'd be bagging 30 goals + assists. And with two and half seasons of consistent performances backing me up, I can safely say he'd definitely achieve that, if not more, by getting more and more games. Utd currently have 4 wingers - Ashley Young, Antonia Valencia, Wilfried Zaha, Luis Nani - for 2 spots. An exciting player in Nani, a solid performer in Valencia [though he was surprisingly poor in 12/13], a young prospect in Zaha and a squad backup in Ashley Young, I hope the wide spots are sealed. All that is left to do now, is to extend Nani's contract.

* - There are discrepancies in stats reported by different sites but for the sake of uniformity, I used transfermarkt for every player. Stats include performances in league, domestic cup, domestic league cup, champions league, community shield or super cup, europa league, champions league qualifiers, europa league qualifiers, uefa super cup and club world cup. National team performances are not included.

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